Exceence Probability – Zulkarnain Hassan

Calculate Flood/Rainfall Frequency from cumulative distributionfunction (CDF) of the distribution

August 11, 2015 by zulkarnainh

Specifically, we will use the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the fitted distribution to calculate the annual exceedance probability (AEP), or the probability that the event is equaled or exceeded in any single year. For example, considering a 200,000 cfs level, the exceedance probability is calculated in the following way: Exceedance_P = P{X≥200} = 1 … Read more

Exceedance Probability

August 11, 2015 by zulkarnainh

Introduction Sometimes a hydrologist may need to know what the chances are over a given time period that a flood will reach or exceed a specific magnitude. This is called the probability of occurrence or the exceedance probability. Let’s say the value “p” is the exceedance probability, in any given year. The exceedance probability may … Read more